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By Mike Mitchell |
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January 27, 2010 -
“In terms of demand, 2009 goes into the history books as the worst year
the industry has ever seen. We have permanently lost 2.5 years of growth
in passenger markets and 3.5 years of growth in the freight business,”
said Giovanni Bisignani, IATA’s Director General and CEO. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) reported December and full-year 2009 demand statistics for international scheduled air traffic that showed the industry ending 2009 with the largest ever post-war decline. Passenger demand for the full year was down 3.5 percent with an average load factor of 75.6 percent.
Freight showed a
full-year decline of 10.1 percent with an average load factor of 49.1
percent. |
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Yields
have started to improve with tighter supply-demand conditions in recent
months, but they remained 5-10 percent down on 2008 levels. “Revenue
improvements will be at a much slower pace than the demand growth that
we are starting to see. Profitability will be even slower to recover and
airlines will lose an expected US$5.6 billion in 2010,” said Bisignani.
International
Passenger Demand
December 2009 passenger demand recorded a 4.5 percent improvement
compared to December 2008, with a load factor of 77.6 percent. While
this is an 8.4 percent demand improvement from the February 2009 low
point, it is still 3.4 percent below the early 2008 peak.
Carriers in Asia-Pacific, Europe and |
Middle Eastern
carriers generated the fastest growth in passenger traffic at the end of
the year with a 19.1 percent increase in December (and 11.2 percent
growth for the entire year). These gains result from Middle Eastern
carriers taking a larger share of long-haul connecting traffic over
their hubs.
Latin American
carriers recorded 7.1 percent growth in December. Full-year traffic
growth was constrained to 0.3 percent due to the impact of Influenza
A(H1N1) fears during the second and third quarters.
International
Freight Demand
December 2009
freight demand showed a 24.4 percent improvement on December 2008 with a
load factor of 54.1 percent. This improvement is exaggerated by the
exceptionally weak performance in December 2008 which was the low point
on the cycle. Freight demand is still 9 percent lower than the peak in
early 2008. Optimism is returning to the industry as purchasing managers
survey indicators reached a 44-month high in December pointing towards
increased freight volumes in the coming months.
Asia-Pacific
carriers accounted for over 60 percent of the increase in international
air freight markets over the past 12 months—outperforming their 45
percent market share. Despite this improvement, Asia-Pacific carriers’
freight volumes remain 8 percent below peak levels.
European carriers
remain 20 percent below 2008 peak levels reflecting the glacial pace of
economic recovery in
“The industry
starts 2010 with some enormous challenges. The worst is behind us, but
it is not time to celebrate. Adjusting to 2.5-3.5 years of lost growth
means that airlines face another spartan year focused on matching
capacity carefully to demand and controlling costs,” said Bisignani.
“We also face a
renewed challenge on security as a result of the events of 25 December
2009. The approach of the Obama administration is encouraging with
Department of Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano visiting
IATA’s offices in
“Governments and
industry are aligned in the priority that we place on security. But the
cost of security is also an issue. Globally, airlines spend US$5.9
billion a year on what are essentially measures concerned with national
security. This is the responsibility of governments, and they should be
picking up the bill,” said Bisignani. |
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